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The Cubs currently have a 23 - 35 record and are sporting a 7 game losing streak. This team has all the makings of being one of the worst Cubs teams in the past few decades. The question remains, just how bad could the Cubs end up being?
Hitting
The Chicago Cubs are currently 3rd in the majors with a team average of .269. However, they are not getting on base nearly enough to take advantage of their high batting average. Currently, the Chicago Cubs are dead last in walks with 143. In retrospect, the St. Louis Cardinals have walked 229 times thus far, an astounding 62% more walks than the Chicago Cubs on the 2011 season.
The Chicago Cubs currently have a BABIP (Batting Average with Balls In Play) of .314, which is 3rd highest in the major leagues. Expect that average to drop down closer to the mean at .289. That tells us, that the Chicago Cubs have a higher batting average than they should. Great.
Fielding
While not exact, fielding statistics do give us an indication of what teams are fielding the ball well - and what teams are booting the ball around like the beginning of the Bad News Bears. The Cubs, predictably, are 3rd worst in the MLB with a -5.5 UZR/150. UZR/150 tells us the number of runs below or above normal a defense is through 150 games. The Cubs give up 5.5 more runs compared to the average defensive team.
Pitching
Currently, the Cubs have the worst ERA in all of baseball at 4.80. The next worst is the Kansas City Royals at 4.63. The Cubs league high WHIP of 1.49, coupled with their 1.04 HR/9 innings (7th worst in MLB) and 69.3% Left on Base % (3rd worst in MLB) makes it difficult for their offense and defense to even come close to producing enough runs to make up for their poor pitching performance.
That is what makes simple games like Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Cardinals hurt even more. Your pitching was good, but you still lost the game.
Conclusion
The Chicago Cubs currently have a .3% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus. They are projected to end up with 73.2 wins and 88.8 losses according to the simulated averages done by Baseball Prospectus. My guess - the Cubs end up worse than these numbers show. They may be vying for the #1 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft.
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Source: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/offhanded-dribble/2011/06/how-bad-could-the-cubs-end-up-being.html
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