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I recently wrote that this 2011 Cubs team may finish as the worst team in the MLB, and the future does not look much brighter. In a June 7 column, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote about the financial troubles that the Chicago Cubs face moving forward.
While it may be true that the Cubs are technically not in compliance with Major League Baseball's debt-service rules -- one of nine such teams, according to a Los Angeles Times report -- that's nothing.
Both the team and commissioner Bud Selig said publicly Friday that the Cubs' debt issues are unique (because of the sale) and not considered a problem with MLB.
But unless their improved farm system takes an even more dramatic upturn in the next few months, that $400-million debt -- give or take $100 million - could turn into a real problem with the bigger authorities. The fans.
If they think that 8-percent drop in average attendance so far (about 3,000 a game from last year) is worth a few sweaty palms, wait until it turns into an all-out youth movement again if the team continues to swoon into July.
Gordon Wittenmyer - Chicago Sun-Times, June 7, 2011
Cubs fans were salivating at the thought of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder maning first base at the beginning of the season, but the reality is just now settling in . This team, full of bloated salaries, has yet to hit rock bottom. For brevity sake, we will keep this review to the large contracts that are both expiring, and still guaranteed through next season. The arbitration eligible, and roster filling contracts will roll over in some form from season to season and are not necessarily considered in these salary projections.
2011 - EXPIRING CONTRACTS
Aramis Ramirez
Ramirez signed a 5 year/75 million dollar deal in 2007. There is a club option of 16 million dollars for the 2012 season. Unfortunately, trading Aramis Ramirez is not a likely scenario as his contract option for 2012 vests if he is traded this season. Teams are not likely to take on an aging, lazy 3rd baseman who will cost 16 million dollars next year without the Cubs taking on a significant portion of that salary.
The Cubs do not have a 3rd base option, but they should not pick up Aramis Ramirez's option.
- 14.6 million dollars
Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome has an expiring contract of 13.5 million after this season. Fukudome, who has had a better tenure with the Cubs than most fans can acknowledge, will not be back with the Cubs following this season. Fukudome may be a viable trade option, but the Cubs will most certainly have to pick up the rest of his 2011 salary.
Regardless, the 2012 salary will be off the books moving into next season.
- 13.5 million dollars
Carlos Pena
Pena's salary will have to be offset by the signing of another 1B this off-season, unless the Cubs decide to play Tyler Colvin exclusively at the position (not a great idea).
- 10 million dollars
John Grabow
Grabow, who signed a 2 year deal prior to the 2010 season, will most likely be a salary expendable player relieving the Cubs of 4.8 million dollars in salary.
- 4.8 million dollars
Carlos Silva
The hits just keep on coming. The Milton Bradley disaster ended up netting the Cubs a fat ass, highly paid minor league pitcher for the New York Yankees.
Carlos Silva's 12.75 million dollar salary is offset by 5.5 million dollars which are being picked up by the Seattle Mariners. Roughly, the Cubs will be relieved of 7.2 million dollars following the 2011 season, however Carlos Silva's 2 million dollar buyout is attributed to the 2012 team salary. This makes Carlos Silva's official salary coming off the books to reach:
- 5.2 million dollars
2012 Guaranteed Salaries
Alfonso Soriano - 19 million
Carlos Zambrano - 19 million
Ryan Dempster - 14 million
Marlon Byrd - 6.5 million
Carlos Marmol - 7 million
Sean Marshall - 3.1 million
The Cubs only have seven players with guaranteed contracts for the 2012 season. These seven players will constitute 68.6 million dollars towards the 2012 team salary. The salary obligations below also includes Carlos Silva's 2 million dollar buyout, the projected 2.0 million dollar buyout of Aramis Ramirez.
Total 2012 Guaranteed Salary Obligations: 72.6 million
via Cots Baseball Contracts
Conclusion
A drop in attendance, coupled with increased maintenance costs for Wrigley Field, tell me that the Cubs will be in full rebuild mode starting now. The Cubs may drop a significant amount of money in guaranteed salaries, however this dollar amount does not include projected arbitration salaries of a number of players. It also does not include league minimum salaries for the players on the 25 man roster.
With expected increases in salaries, addition of arbitration eligible players, and a few low end free agents the Cubs will already be pushing towards a 100 million dollar payroll. With that said, it is quite obvious to me that the Cubs should not be spenders this off-season. Hell, they may not even be able to spend if the attendance continues to drop. More financial flexibility will come following the 2012 season as guaranteed salaries drop to 28.8 million dollars. Ride out the long term contracts through 2012.
Two seasons, 2011 and 2012, are necessary evils in the rebuilding process. Try and find trade partners for Fukudome and Byrd, even if you have to pay their contracts, and test out some of the young kids (Colvin and Brett Jackson). And, for the love of all things holy, fire Jim Hendry. There are plenty of articles that will articulate much more accurately Jim Hendry's downfalls, but the simplest reason is the financial fiasco that he has caused, handcuffing the Chicago Cubs for years to come.
The rest of this season, and all of next season needs to be a youth movement. You need to find young, salary controlled players in the farm system. This is going to be a process, and it's not going to be easy. This year, and all of next year the Cubs are going to be really awful. But, as contracts begin to come off the books and more players from the minors begin to play, hopefully the Cubs find more players like Darwin Barney or Starlin Castro who could be part of the rebuilding process.
Rebuilding is a necessity. Build a perennial contender through scouting, drafting, and signing talented players and develop these players throughout your farm system. The Cubs can not try and spend to fix the problem. Duct tape will not seal the hole at the bottom of this sinking ship.
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@bdweav2
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Source: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/offhanded-dribble/2011/06/the-chicago-cubs---a-bleak-future.html
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